Are we near the end of optical media?

Posted by Todd

September 7, 2007 | 7 Comments

I often ask myself this question.  I should note that I am by no means a forecast analyst but I do have some pretty strong opinions so hear me out.

As far as standard def DVDs go there isn’t really anything new we can do.  We have reached the limits in terms of storage and have stretched the ability of our current authoring software and the DVD spec as far as it can go.  In terms of sales, they have peaked and have started to decline.  This is in large part due to services such as Blockbuster Online and Netflix.  I myself have a Blockbuster Online account and have certainly found myself renting more DVDS than I purchase.   The sales numbers are certainly going to decline.  There are some newer markets overseas where they are still strong, but I suspect that over time those to will become saturated and fall off.  This is ok, it’s natural, it’s progress and I am all for progress.

Next we have the new High Def optical media formats.  Now, it just seems to me that since the beginning they have been, in a sense, shoved down consumer’s throats.  What I mean by this, is that I am not so sure that people are finished as a whole with standard def DVD.  Face it, in our busy lifestyle it’s sometimes just easier to pop in a DVD, watch the movie and be done with it.  Sure, college kids and younger kids will probably eat up the extra content, but will they really?  Do they really want to pop in Die Hard for instance and play a little video game that is basically just an ad for the franchise?  Why should they?  With XBox 360, WII, DS, PS3 is this really the best place to try and capture their attention with a video game?  I say no.

We have had presentations at work dealing with the new connected features of HD-DVD and BluRay.  They say things like “You can put your DVD in on Christmas and all of a sudden the character on the main menu has a santa hat on, or you get new trailers and commercials.”  Wait.  What?  Trailers and commercials.  Santa hats.  Come on.  I wish you could actually see me rolling my eyes.  I just don’t think this is going to impress anyone beyond the initial “Thats cool” factor wears off.

What is cool and long lasting about these formats is the quality of the audio and video.  I have seen it first hand and it’s spectacular.  But, and this is a huge BUT, optical media is not going to be needed for long to distribute this quality.  Actually, in my house it isn’t needed at all.  I can fire up my XBox 360 right now and download 300.  Sure I don’t own it.  Sure it takes a bit before I can start watching.  But these are minor issues.  I don’t need all the extra content to feel satisfied.  I don’t even need to “own” the movie.  I will get to see it, in great quality and move on to another great movie.  I am sure not going to drop money on a player to get the extras.  It’s not worth it.  Trust me, eventually you are going to be seeing these extras delivered digitally to your home.  It might not be soon, but I am willing to bet it will start to show up before the dust settles on the format war.

One argument I have heard is that digital distribution isn’t available to everyone.  You could read that as older members of society and the less technologically inclined.  That doesn’t hold water to me.  These people aren’t going to be playing around with BluRay or any high def for that matter.  They are also probably happy with DVD and maybe even VHS.  You can take this market out of the equation since nothing is going to really blow them away.

I actually think that over time, digital distribution will just become natural.  People will say, remember when we used to use these crazy silver discs….madness.  Maybe this blog will be called the Digital Distribution Shrink ;-)  Who knows?  I don’t.  Like I said, I am just spitting out ideas.  I am sure there are people that will say I am crazy.  I am by no means stating this as fact.  Rather, I am just voicing some legitimate concerns I have with the current state of the entertainment industry.  Like I said, if you follow everything, it just seems like that is the way things are flowing.  Think of the current high def optical media formats as a bridge to the next logical step.  Just holding us over until we are ready to embrace it.


Comments

7 Comments so far

  1. Conzar on September 8, 2007 11:37 pm

    I agree in the fact that the best way for artist to get their content out to folks is via the internet. The easier it is to get the content, the more likely the content will be viewed.

    I’ve heard that Netflix has some of its movies available for streaming. I think this is a great marker for Netflix. Their major issue now is getting more movie studio’s on board (licensing issues are holding them up with providing more of their conent from being streamed).

    Now MPAA and other orgs that want to protect their IP … they just have to get over it. Make your content easy to purchase and people will buy it!!!! Sure there will be a small portion of the population (hackers, poor college students, and the like) that will rip their content. But those poeple aren’t and shouldn’t be the target market for the content.

    Which means, make it easy for your target market to get the content and don’t worry about the rippers.

    Thats my 2 cents … I agree with on that one … digit is much easier to deal with then physical media.

    One note though, I think physical media will still be around for a long time (especially when we have programs or other content that are terabytes in size … which requires the 3d media discs … 3d media discs exist today but are damn expensive … you will start seeing them in 5 to 10 years for consumers)

  2. Todd on September 10, 2007 10:53 am

    Conzar,

    I agree. The netflix streaming media doesn’t excite me too much though. From what I have heard it isn’t the best quality. I would much rather be able to plop down on my couch and watch a high def stream anyway :-)

    I should have titled the article “Are we nearing the end of optical media for content distribution”. I realized that after the fact. Optical media as a backup/archive format is not going anywhere anytime soon. I just recently blogged an article about 1TB disc’s in development.

  3. PDay on September 10, 2007 4:25 pm

    I agree with the article 100%. Also, I think there will be another factor pushing the transition – the media companies themselves. Why? Copyright protection.

    An online-only distribution network that users must a) have an account with and b) be logged into at the all times to use gives a much greater degree of control to the movie biz. Basically, once a physical media disc leaves the factory, the industry has lost control of it, but if they keep the rights to WATCH the movie then they never lose control.

    I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but it’s the direction I think the industry is going.

  4. Todd on September 11, 2007 11:29 am

    Exactly. I think it’s been proven time and time again that you can’t protect content on a physical medium. If it can be played it can be harvested basically. That isn’t to say that digital distribution will end this problem, but it will certainly make it a bit easier for the copyright holders to protect their content.

  5. admin on September 12, 2007 9:01 am

    Great article Todd, very informative

  6. Warning: Blu-ray and HD-DVD Might Both Fail : Zaphu on September 12, 2007 10:57 pm

    [...] Similar conclusion from The DVD Shrink Blog. [...]

  7. franklin on September 12, 2007 11:00 pm

    I couldn’t agree more! I can’t wait for iTunes rentals.

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